AI 2040: Interactive Chart For Plan A
YEAR BOXES = Plan A chapters (select for summary) · CIRCLES 1–5 = route changes · VERTICAL RULES = dated capability / economic shifts · ↔ = pause
2027: The Writing on the Wall — tap for chapter summary
2027
2028: AI on the Ballot — tap for chapter summary
2028
2029a: Choose a Path — tap for chapter summary
2029a
2029b: Hurried Negotiation — tap for chapter summary
2029b
2030: Plan A Is Established — tap for chapter summary
2030
2031: Safety Cases — tap for chapter summary
2031
2032: Controlled Explosive Growth — tap for chapter summary
2032
2033: The Citizen’s Dividend — tap for chapter summary
2033
2034: Mutually Assured Compute Destruction — tap for chapter summary
2034
2035: Pause at Top Expert AI — tap for chapter summary
2035
2036: Life After Work — tap for chapter summary
2036
2037: The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth — tap for chapter summary
2037
2038: AI Alignment Is Now a Science — tap for chapter summary
2038
2039: Beginning to Trust AIs — tap for chapter summary
2039
2040: Passing the Torch to AIs — tap for chapter summary
2040
2040 | Epilogue — “Life after” (shakier ground, per the authors)
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
space
ocean
land
land infrastructure persists
ocean datacenters persist
Pause at top-expert AI · 2035–2040 — tap for details
PAUSE AT TOP-EXPERT AI · 2035–2040
INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION — arrested by Plan A · 2030 — tap for details
INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION
arrested by Plan A · 2030
INDUSTRIAL EXPLOSION — real GDP growth ≈50% · 2032 — tap for details
INDUSTRIAL EXPLOSION
real GDP growth ≈50% · 2032
ASI / SUPERINTELLIGENCE — unpause → superintelligence · 2040 — tap for details
ASI / SUPERINTELLIGENCE
unpause → superintelligence · 2040
Robots perform about 10% of physical labour by mid-2031 — tap for details
🤖
AIs and robots together perform about 85% of labor by economic value in 2035 — tap for details
🤖🧠
POST-2040 SPACE INDUSTRY · proposed sequence
factories build robots + mining equipment — tap for details
factories build robots + mining equipment
robots mine → build more factories — tap for details
robots mine → build more factories
probes establish industrial bases — tap for details
probes establish industrial bases
AI compute caps loosen in space · no count — tap for details
AI compute caps loosen in space · no count
Treaty chooses the resource-allocation system · 2040 — tap for details
Treaty chooses allocation system · 2040
EXTRASOLAR RESOURCE OWNERSHIP · proposals
Lottery ownership claims · undated — tap for details
Lottery ownership claims · undated
Global vote in 2070 · example — tap for details
Global vote in 2070 · example
1: The verified US–China agreement slows the capability route rather than continuing an unconstrained race. — tap for details
1
2: Plan A is established and AI development resumes under slower, more transparent and distributed rules. — tap for details
2
3: Reliability and monitoring concerns lead the Consortium to choose ocean datacenters over space. — tap for details
3
4: The Consortium pauses capabilities at top-expert level when control-based safety reaches its estimated limit. — tap for details
4
5: Compute and robot caps tighten on Earth but loosen in space, beginning the route’s spaceward transition. — tap for details
5
Agent-derived from AI 2040 data — select for the Maximum Controllable AI source
tan width = agent-derived estimate of AI-control margin
wide = farther below AI 2040’s loss-of-control threshold · thin = nearer or at it · select for source
Workforce transition — same dates, different width scale
band thickness = entity headcount · task shares are annotations, not widths
2025
2030
2035
2040
output / AI
1 AI ≈ 50 human cognitive workers
1 AI ≈ 500 human cognitive workers
derived from chapter totals; only 2032 and 2036 are published anchors
humans
AI · cognitive
robots · physical
3.5B workers
3.9B workers
1.8B workers
28M
170M
190M
≤80M cap
2B
2032: displaced white-collar workers take temporary physical jobs
2031: AI ≈ ⅓ of cognitive labour
robots ≈ 10% of physical labour
2036: 200M AIs ≈ 100B human cognitive workers
AI cognitive labour: land → ocean → space
humans stay on land
…no human crews follow the compute to sea
robots follow after 2040
robots: on land, capped
settlers follow the probes · undated
WORKFORCE HEADCOUNTS · log scale · series: AI Futures econ explorer · robots interpolated between chapter anchors
10M
100M
1B
10B
100B
1T
2025
2030
2035
2040
humans
AI instances
robots
AI in human-equivalents (copies × speed × efficiency)
≈400B
2B
0.7B
186M
~10M robots in 2025 — econ-explorer default stocks
80M US robot permit cap in 2032 — open source text
2 billion robots by early 2036 — open source text
80M · 2032 US permit cap
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