AI 2040: Interactive Chart For Plan A YEAR BOXES = Plan A chapters (select for summary) · CIRCLES 1–5 = route changes · VERTICAL RULES = dated capability / economic shifts · ↔ = pause 2027: The Writing on the Wall — tap for chapter summary 2027 2028: AI on the Ballot — tap for chapter summary 2028 2029a: Choose a Path — tap for chapter summary 2029a 2029b: Hurried Negotiation — tap for chapter summary 2029b 2030: Plan A Is Established — tap for chapter summary 2030 2031: Safety Cases — tap for chapter summary 2031 2032: Controlled Explosive Growth — tap for chapter summary 2032 2033: The Citizen’s Dividend — tap for chapter summary 2033 2034: Mutually Assured Compute Destruction — tap for chapter summary 2034 2035: Pause at Top Expert AI — tap for chapter summary 2035 2036: Life After Work — tap for chapter summary 2036 2037: The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth — tap for chapter summary 2037 2038: AI Alignment Is Now a Science — tap for chapter summary 2038 2039: Beginning to Trust AIs — tap for chapter summary 2039 2040: Passing the Torch to AIs — tap for chapter summary 2040 2040 | Epilogue — “Life after” (shakier ground, per the authors) 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 space ocean land land infrastructure persists ocean datacenters persist Pause at top-expert AI · 2035–2040 — tap for details PAUSE AT TOP-EXPERT AI · 2035–2040 INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION — arrested by Plan A · 2030 — tap for details INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION arrested by Plan A · 2030 INDUSTRIAL EXPLOSION — real GDP growth ≈50% · 2032 — tap for details INDUSTRIAL EXPLOSION real GDP growth ≈50% · 2032 ASI / SUPERINTELLIGENCE — unpause → superintelligence · 2040 — tap for details ASI / SUPERINTELLIGENCE unpause → superintelligence · 2040 Robots perform about 10% of physical labour by mid-2031 — tap for details AIs and robots together perform about 85% of labor by economic value in 2035 — tap for details POST-2040 SPACE INDUSTRY · proposed sequence factories build robots + mining equipment — tap for details factories build robots + mining equipment robots mine → build more factories — tap for details robots mine → build more factories probes establish industrial bases — tap for details probes establish industrial bases AI compute caps loosen in space · no count — tap for details AI compute caps loosen in space · no count Treaty chooses the resource-allocation system · 2040 — tap for details Treaty chooses allocation system · 2040 EXTRASOLAR RESOURCE OWNERSHIP · proposals Lottery ownership claims · undated — tap for details Lottery ownership claims · undated Global vote in 2070 · example — tap for details Global vote in 2070 · example 1: The verified US–China agreement slows the capability route rather than continuing an unconstrained race. — tap for details 1 2: Plan A is established and AI development resumes under slower, more transparent and distributed rules. — tap for details 2 3: Reliability and monitoring concerns lead the Consortium to choose ocean datacenters over space. — tap for details 3 4: The Consortium pauses capabilities at top-expert level when control-based safety reaches its estimated limit. — tap for details 4 5: Compute and robot caps tighten on Earth but loosen in space, beginning the route’s spaceward transition. — tap for details 5 Agent-derived from AI 2040 data — select for the Maximum Controllable AI source tan width = agent-derived estimate of AI-control margin wide = farther below AI 2040’s loss-of-control threshold · thin = nearer or at it · select for source Workforce transition — same dates, different width scale band thickness = entity headcount · task shares are annotations, not widths 2025 2030 2035 2040 output / AI 1 AI ≈ 50 human cognitive workers 1 AI ≈ 500 human cognitive workers derived from chapter totals; only 2032 and 2036 are published anchors humans AI · cognitive robots · physical 3.5B workers 3.9B workers 1.8B workers 28M 170M 190M ≤80M cap 2B 2032: displaced white-collar workers take temporary physical jobs 2031: AI ≈ ⅓ of cognitive labour robots ≈ 10% of physical labour 2036: 200M AIs ≈ 100B human cognitive workers